Almost 5 million fewer girls than boys to be born globally in the next decade 2 years ago

Almost 5 million fewer girls than boys to be born globally in the next decade

Sex-selective abortions have been on the rise for the past 40 years in countries throughout southeast Europe, along with south and east Asia.

This, experts argue, will start to make a real demographic impact over the next few decades, and could even undermine social cohesion in the long term.

According to a new study, published in the BMJ medical journal, an estimated 4.7 million fewer girls are expected to be born globally in the next ten years because of sex-selective practices in countries with a cultural preference for male offspring.

According to the researchers, the projected shortfall in the number of girls being born will lead to a surplus of young men in around a third of the global population by 2030.

To look into how this will impact society both short- and long-term, an international team of researchers have been analysing data from more than three billion births over the last 50 years.

Focusing on 12 countries where the male-to-female ratio had increased since 1970 and another 17 where that ratio was at risk of increasing due to social or cultural trends, they simulated two scenarios.

The first assumed an increase in the rate of sex selection, based on statistical evidence.

The second scenario assumed increased sex selection in certain countries, based on observed trends and decreased fertility, but for which specific data were lacking.

In scenario 1, countries saw a shortfall of 4.7 million in the number of girls being born by 2030. For scenario 2, the figure jumped to more than 22 million globally by 2100.

Not enough girls around to marry the surplus of boys

Following their study, the researchers said the bias towards male offspring could lead to a "marriage squeeze" in affected countries.

"Fewer-than-expected females in a population could result in elevated levels of anti-social behaviour and violence, and may ultimately affect long-term stability and social sustainable development," they wrote.

The United Nations defines sex-selective practices alongside child marriage and female genital mutilation as harmful practices targeted under the Millennium Development Goals.

The authors of the new study called for better data collection of such practices in order to stamp them out, as well as wider education initiatives.

"A broader objective relates to the need to influence gender norms which lie at the core of harmful practices such as prenatal sex selection," they wrote.

"This calls for broader legal frameworks to ensure gender equality."