Doctors find new way of predicting migraine attacks

Doctors have come up with a new model for predicting migraine attacks in frequent headache sufferers.

When it comes to the painful headaches, sufferers and doctors have long believed that certain 'trigger factors' can bring about a migraine attack. In fact, the Migraine Association of Ireland says that trigger factors are implicated in about 40 percent of attacks:

"A good trigger-management strategy can be a very powerful tool in helping you manage your migraine. Although there is no specific 'cure' for migraine, you may be able to reduce the number of attacks you experience by identifying and avoiding your triggers. Certain foods, drinks, situations or environmental conditions may precipitate or bring on a migraine."

Now, a brand new model based on measuring stress from daily hassles may help forecast future migraine headache attacks in those who develop them frequently. The findings, published in Headache, suggest that it may be possible to predict tomorrow's migraine attack based on today's stress. Lead researcher Dr Tim Houle, of Massachusetts General Hospital, explains:

"We know that certain people are at greater risk of having an attack over other people, but within a person, we have not been able to predict increased risk for an attack with any level of accuracy. This study demonstrates that it is quite possible to forecast the occurrence of a headache attack within an individual headache sufferer."

Dr Houle and his colleagues looked at 4,195 days of diary data from 95 migraine sufferers, and found that participants experienced a headache attack on 1,613 (38.5 percent) days. A simple forecasting model using either the frequency of stressful events or the perceived intensity of these events showed promising predictive value. While the participants reported low to moderate levels of stress overall, stress was greater on days preceding a headache. Dr Houle says that, with refinement, the model has the potential to allow for preemptive treatment of migraine attacks when someone is at greatest risk, thereby avoiding pain:

"The model we developed in this study is a very good start to helping people forecast the chances they will experience a headache attack, but work is needed to make the prediction models more accurate before they will be of widespread clinical use."